NRF Forecasts 4.4% Retail Sales Growth to $5.6 Trillion in 2026

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3.19.2026

Quick Facts

NRF projects retail sales will grow 4.4% to $5.6 trillion in 2026, the highest forecast since 2022
Growth outpaces the 3.6% average annual increase over the past decade, excluding pandemic years
Forecast exceeds Bain & Company’s more conservative 3.5% prediction for the same period

The National Retail Federation forecasts retail sales will jump 4.4% to $5.6 trillion in 2026. The projection represents the strongest growth prediction since 2022, excluding pandemic-distorted years from 2020 to 2022.

The forecast compares with 3.6% average annual sales growth over the last 10 years and follows 3.9% growth to $5.4 trillion in 2025. NRF announced the projection during its sixth annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual event.

“Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated,” said Matthew Shay, NRF President and CEO. “We expect that consumer resilience to continue into 2026, with household spending once again serving as a pillar of economic support.”

NRF developed the forecast using a new methodology created with Oxford Economics, an independent economic advisory firm. The projection covers store-based and online purchases across discount stores, department stores, grocers and specialty stores, but excludes automotive dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

Several factors support the growth outlook. Consumer activity should receive a boost in the first half of 2026 from larger tax refunds tied to the Working Families Tax Cut Act. The unemployment rate is expected to remain below 4.5%, while solid income growth and household balance sheets provide underlying support.

“While we do expect inflation to remain above the Fed’s target for the year, we also expect goods inflation will remain in a slightly lower band, meaning that a significant proportion of NRF’s forecasted growth will actually be real growth,” the organization stated.

Economic uncertainties cloud the outlook. Mark Mathews, NRF Chief Economist, cited “renewed tensions in the Middle East and the ripple effects across global markets” as sources of uncertainty. NRF is monitoring the Iran war, which is pushing oil and gas prices higher.

Consumer spending patterns remain split between income levels. Higher-income households are driving most growth across retail categories, while lower-income consumers face continued financial pressure.

NRF’s forecast exceeds competitor predictions. Bain & Company projects 3.5% growth to $5.3 trillion, down from its 4% prediction for 2025. “Consumers continue to face financial pressure, driving our forecast for slower retail sales growth,” said Aaron Cheris, global head of Bain’s Retail practice.

Retail contributes $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supports more than 55 million American workers, making it the nation’s largest private-sector employer.