Nike Stock Hits Eight-Year Low After Predicting Q4 Sales Drop

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4.1.2026

Quick Facts

Nike stock fell 8% to $52.84 after warning Q4 sales will drop 2-4% versus analysts’ expected 1.9% increase
Q3 revenue hit $11.28 billion, beating estimates, but operating profit dropped 30% year-over-year
Company expects 20% decline in China sales during current quarter while North America grows 6%

Nike shares tumbled to an eight-year low after the athletic giant warned fourth-quarter sales would decline up to 4%, contradicting Wall Street expectations for growth.

The company reported third-quarter revenue of $11.28 billion, beating analyst estimates of $11.24 billion. But operating profit fell 30% to $553 million as the company continues its turnaround efforts.

CFO Matt Friend told investors Nike expects sales for the current fiscal fourth quarter to drop between 2% and 4%. Wall Street had predicted a 1.9% increase.

“Nike’s turnaround efforts will continue to impact results over the balance of the calendar year,” Friend said on the earnings call.

The warning sent shares down more than 8% in after-hours trading. The stock closed at $52.84, marking its lowest level since 2016.

Geographic performance showed mixed results. North American sales grew 6%, signaling CEO Elliott Hill’s regional turnaround strategy is working. But Nike warned of a 20% decline in China sales during the current quarter.

Channel performance reflected Hill’s strategy to rebuild wholesale partnerships. Wholesale revenue climbed 5% to $6.5 billion while direct sales dropped 4% to $4.5 billion.

The company faces mounting pressure from challenger brands like On and Hoka. Nike’s market share fell from 23.4% to 22.1% between 2019 and 2022, while On Running quadrupled its share from 0.3% to 1.2%.

Hill is leading what analysts call an “aggressive back-to-basics restructuring” that prioritizes wholesale partnerships and technical performance over the previous regime’s direct-to-consumer focus.

Nike’s stock has dropped over 60% from its November 2021 peak of $177. The company now trades at 22 times forward earnings, its cheapest valuation in nearly a decade.

Friend cautioned that “the environment around us has become increasingly dynamic” due to Middle East disruption, rising oil prices and other factors.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup could provide relief. Analysts estimate the tournament could drive an additional $1.3 billion in revenue in the second half of 2026.