Amazon Prime Day 2026 Projected to Drive $26.3B in U.S. E-Commerce Over Four Days

Quick Facts

Adobe projects $26.3 billion in total U.S. e-commerce sales during Prime Day 2026, up 9% year over year.
Amazon’s share of U.S. e-commerce during the event is forecast to hit 60.3%, the highest since 2019, per eMarketer.
55% of U.S. consumers plan to shop during Prime Day 2026, up from 45% in the prior year.

Amazon’s 12th annual Prime Day begins June 23 and runs through June 26, an expanded four-day format that replaces the traditional 48-hour window. The event moved from July to June to avoid scheduling conflicts with the FIFA World Cup and U.S. Independence Day celebrations.

Adobe Inc. forecasts the promotion will generate $26.3 billion in U.S. online sales across Amazon and competing retailers, a 9% increase over last year’s event. eMarketer separately projects Amazon’s own U.S. Prime Day sales will reach $15.68 billion, up 7.1% year over year.

Amazon’s 60.3% share of total U.S. e-commerce during the four-day period would be its highest since 2019, according to eMarketer. Non-Amazon online sales are forecast to grow 6.0% during the same window.

Adobe also projects the event will push Q2 2026 online spending past $300 billion, the first time any quarter outside of the holiday season has crossed that threshold.

Consumer behavior is shifting. Participation is up sharply: 55% of U.S. consumers plan to shop the event, compared to 45% last year. Of those, 46% expect to spend the same as in 2025, and 20% plan to spend more. The majority of participants, 59%, expect to spend up to $200.

Babson College marketing professor Lauren Beitelspacher attributed some of the demand surge to economic anxiety. “People aren’t just looking for deals — they’re trying to outpace economic uncertainty,” she said. “Fear around tariffs, rising prices, and product availability is pushing people to shop sooner.”

Andy Taylor, VP of research at Tinuiti, said shopper motivation is running high. “The finding that stood out the most is how motivated shoppers are to find good deals right now and how that’s likely to drive up demand during big sales events like Prime Day,” he said.

AI is becoming a shopping tool. Amazon announced Alexa for Shopping, which connects its Rufus e-commerce chatbot with its Alexa+ assistant. The integration lets members build personalized deal guides and set price alerts ahead of the event. Rufus launched in 2024 and had more than 300 million customers in 2025. On Amazon’s most recent earnings call, CEO Andy Jassy said monthly active Rufus users were up more than 115% and engagement was up nearly 400% year over year.

Jassy said Amazon’s goal is to build “the best shopping assistant anywhere,” a direct response to consumers increasingly turning to ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini for product research.

Competitors are moving fast. Walmart and Best Buy launched six-day deal events on June 22, one day before Prime Day began, with discounts of up to 50%. Target is also running overlapping promotions.

Nearly 60% of consumers who plan to shop Prime Day also intend to browse Walmart’s offers, and 35% plan to check Target, according to Tinuiti research. More than half of Prime Day shoppers plan to buy from multiple retailers during the event, per a Dynata survey commissioned by Akeneo.

Top categories expected to lead in sales include clothing and accessories at 41% of shopper intent, consumer electronics at 38%, and beauty products at 26%. Adobe predicts the event will also accelerate back-to-school purchases in kids’ apparel, backpacks, and lunch boxes. Home goods including appliances and power tools are also expected to see a lift. Bank of America expects electronics to capture some of the biggest deals of the event.

Prime Day runs across 23 countries, including Canada, France, Germany, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States.