Back-to-School Spending Projected to Hit Record $43.3B for K-12, $103.5B for College in 2026

Quick Facts

K-12 back-to-school spending is forecast to reach a record $43.3 billion in 2026, up from $39.4 billion in 2025.
College spending is projected to hit $103.5 billion, surpassing $100 billion for the first time, with average spend per household at $1,437.79.
One in five back-to-school shoppers plan to use AI tools to find deals online, while online shopping intent has fallen to its lowest level since 2016 for college shoppers.

Back-to-school spending is on track to break records across both K-12 and college categories in 2026, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights and Analytics annual survey. The numbers signal a major spending moment for retailers, even as consumer anxiety around tariffs and inflation shapes how and when people shop.

K-12 families plan to spend an average of $863.86 this season, up from $858.07 in 2025. Total K-12 spending is projected at $43.3 billion, topping the previous survey record of $41.5 billion set in 2023. Electronics lead planned spending at $293.11 per household, followed by clothing at $250.29, shoes at $174.01, and school supplies at $146.45.

College spending tells an even bigger story. Students and their families are expected to spend an average of $1,437.79, up from $1,325.85 last year. Electronics top the category list at $341.95 per shopper, or $24.63 billion in total. Dorm and apartment furnishings follow at $194.00 per shopper, with clothing, food, and personal care rounding out the top five categories.

Deals Drive the Calendar

Over half of survey respondents, 54%, said they bought school supplies during major promotional events including Target Circle Deal Days, Walmart Deals, and Amazon Prime Day. Those sale windows are now a structural part of how families plan and time their purchases.

Still, shopping started later this year. Only 62% of consumers had begun back-to-school shopping by early July, down from 67% in 2025. Among those who had not yet purchased at least half of their items, 46% said they were waiting for better deals and 23% were spreading out spending to manage budgets.

NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said affordability is the defining theme. “Shoppers are keeping value front and center as they look for ways to make their dollars go further,” he said. “Retailers are responding with a strong assortment of products, promotional events and more convenient shopping options.”

Online Shopping Dips as Physical Retail Holds

Despite the record spending totals, online shopping intent dropped. Only 50% of K-12 shoppers plan to buy online this year, down from 55% in 2025. For college shoppers, 41% plan to shop online, the lowest share since 2016. Department stores, discount stores, and clothing retailers are picking up the difference.

Walmart leads on planned back-to-school traffic, with 59% of shoppers saying they intend to shop there this season, per Coresight Research. Target follows at 39% and Amazon at 38%.

Cost Pressures Run Deep

The cost of preparing students for school has risen roughly 40% since 2019, outpacing overall inflation of 30% over the same period. PwC estimates families spend an additional $635 per month during the academic year on lunches, school fees, tutoring, and extracurricular activities.

Not all forecasters share NRF’s optimistic view. Deloitte projects K-12 spending will stay flat at $30.4 billion, or $557 per child, flat in nominal terms and down 6% after inflation. In the Deloitte survey, 57% of consumers said they expect the economy to worsen in the coming months, the highest share since 2020.

AI Enters the Checkout Path

One in five back-to-school shoppers plan to use AI tools to find online deals this season. Phil Rist, Executive VP of Strategy at Prosper, noted that increased electronics purchasing plans are a key driver of the college spending surge. “The percentage of consumers planning to purchase electronics has increased significantly this year, while several other categories are also attracting more shoppers than previous years,” he said.

For ecommerce operators, the combination of falling online shopping intent and rising AI-assisted discovery creates a clear imperative: product listings and digital channels need to be optimized for AI-powered search, not just traditional keyword queries. Brands that show up in those results will be positioned to capture a share of what could be the largest back-to-school season on record.