Quick Facts
- Grocery unit sales fell 1.8% year over year in June 2026, the fifth consecutive month of negative unit growth, according to Bain & Company and NielsenIQ.
- 80% of Americans reported trying to cut spending in Bain’s latest Consumer Lab pulse survey, with 28% specifically targeting grocery bills.
- GLP-1 drug adoption reached 13.1% of U.S. adults in June 2026, and forecasts suggest related consumption changes could reduce food-at-home sales by $9 billion to $21 billion this year.
U.S. grocery stores are selling fewer products, and the trend is accelerating. Unit sales dropped 1.8% in June from a year earlier, the fifth straight month of decline, according to a Bain & Company analysis of NielsenIQ data released July 16.
“The data is unambiguous: U.S. grocery is in a genuine volume contraction,” said Kurt Grichel, head of Bain’s Americas Retail practice and co-author of the report.
The Numbers
After a 1.7% uptick in January 2026, unit sales fell every month through June. The monthly declines: down 2% in February, 0.4% in March, 2.2% in April, 1.9% in May, and 1.8% in June. That June figure is a sharp reversal from the 0.1% year-over-year growth recorded in June 2025.
The decline hit hardest in the West, where unit sales dropped 3% in June. The Northeast saw the smallest pullback at 1.3%.
What Is Driving the Drop
Bain’s report points to several converging pressures rather than a single cause.
Grocery prices have risen 33% since 2019. That $300 stock-up trip now costs $400. While prices are still rising 2% to 3% annually, that inflation cushion is no longer enough to keep total sales growing in dollar terms.
SNAP benefit cuts compounded the pressure on lower-income households. Participation dropped significantly in late 2025, and tighter eligibility rules took effect in early 2026. By the end of this year, 19 states will have waivers affecting roughly 7.5 million households, or one-third of SNAP participants.
A gas price spike of more than 20% in March pulled additional dollars out of weekly budgets. And 66% of U.S. shoppers now describe groceries as “unaffordable,” up from less than half earlier this year, according to Washington Post/Ipsos polling. That sentiment is no longer limited to lower-income households.
The rise of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is also a factor. Adoption reached 13.1% of U.S. adults in June, up from 12% in November 2025. Research firm Big Chalk forecasts GLP-1-related changes in consumption will cut food-at-home sales by between $9 billion and $21 billion in 2026. Between 30% and 40% of GLP-1 users are actively trying to reduce grocery spending.
How Shoppers Are Responding
In Bain’s Consumer Lab pulse survey, 56% of shoppers trimming grocery bills said they are trading down to lower-priced brands. Another 49% said they are buying fewer items outright, and 44% are leaning harder on coupons and promotions.
NielsenIQ survey data shows 22% of shoppers are now visiting more retailers to find the best prices. Online shopping is also a contributing factor, as digital grocery buyers tend to purchase smaller baskets.
Industry Fallout
Packaged food companies including General Mills, Kraft Heinz, and Mondelez have reported flat or declining North American volumes in 2026. Executives at major food and beverage manufacturers have flagged soft unit sales on earnings calls throughout the year.
Retailers are responding with price cuts to drive traffic. Grichel said brands and retailers that respond with precision on assortment, promotions, and private label will be best positioned to capture the shopping trips still available.
“The path back to growth is not just about low prices, but a value story that shoppers believe in and come back for,” Grichel said.
Robust tax refunds and pandemic-era savings provided some buffer for consumers earlier in 2026, but Bain’s analysis indicates those reserves are eroding under sustained inflation pressure.
