Back-to-School Denim Campaigns Launch Earlier as Brands Chase $146.8B Season

Quick Facts

Total back-to-school spending is forecast to hit $146.8 billion in 2026, up from $128.2 billion in 2025, according to the National Retail Federation.
Pacsun, Kohl’s, Hollister, and American Eagle all launched denim campaigns earlier in 2026 than they did in 2025.
32% of back-to-school shoppers had already started shopping by early June 2026, up from 26% in 2025.

The back-to-school denim season started earlier in 2026, ran longer, and carried higher stakes than any recent year. Major retailers moved their campaign launches up by days or weeks as they competed for a record-breaking spending window.

Kohl’s debuted its back-to-school campaign on July 8, nine days ahead of its 2025 launch. Pacsun rolled out its ‘Denim Starts Here’ campaign on July 9, three days earlier than last year. Hollister began marketing its denim collection on July 16, compared to early August in 2025. American Eagle launched its 2026 campaign on July 22, stretching it across roughly 10 weeks.

A Longer Shopping Window

The earlier launches track a real shift in consumer behavior. The NRF found that 32% of back-to-school shoppers had already begun purchasing by early June 2026, up six percentage points from 2025. About one-third of shoppers say they plan purchases around summer sales.

American Eagle CMO Craig Brommers said the brand no longer treats back-to-school as a single event. “It can no longer be one moment, one launch, one product drop,” Brommers said. “We are seeing that our customers are buying a few key pieces early, then are continuing to shop as they discover new trends, see new content or head back to campus.”

Where the Money Goes

Families with K-12 students plan to spend an average of $863.86 this year, up from $858.07 in 2025. Total K-12 spending is expected to reach a record $43.3 billion, surpassing the previous survey high of $41.5 billion set in 2023.

Clothing and accessories rank second in planned spending at $250.29 per K-12 household, trailing only electronics at $293.11. Shoes follow at $174.01 and school supplies at $146.45.

Despite economic pressures, NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews noted that consumer spending at major retail events has held up. “Despite low sentiment and high gas prices, over the course of the year we’ve also seen record per person spend at almost every spending event this year,” Mathews said.

Denim Demand Is Growing, Not Fading

Google Trends data for “low rise jeans” in the U.S. shows a recurring seasonal peak each August that grew from an index of 18 in 2022 to 48 in 2025. Interest then surged to an index high of 100 in April 2026, the highest point in the five-year data set, before easing to 47 by June. The April spike coincided with Coachella, where low-rise denim was widely worn.

Consumer research firm Circana identifies denim as a category bright spot, popular among teens and now expanding to children ages five to 12. Wide-leg silhouettes are trending within denim, driving sales of complementary casual tops and lower-profile footwear.

Susie Draffan, senior denim strategist at WGSN, expects ultra-low-rise styles to keep emerging in 2026 but points to a broader shift toward relaxed fits rather than a strict Y2K throwback.

Campaign Stakes Are High

American Eagle’s 2025 back-to-school campaign, which featured Sydney Sweeney, set the benchmark competitors are chasing. Within six weeks of its July 2025 launch, the campaign attracted 790,000 new customers across every U.S. county and added nearly 320,000 social followers. The company described it as its most expensive campaign to date.

Pacsun’s Richard Cox said the brand’s 2026 campaign reflects how Gen Z and Gen Alpha approach style. “They aren’t dressing for one trend or aesthetic. They’re expressing who they are,” Cox said.

Retail analyst Gabriella Santaniello of A-Line Partners said the pressure to match prior-year results is real. “You have retailers that are up against pretty good campaigns last year, so there’s always pressure for them to anniversary that,” Santaniello said.