Back-to-School 2026: Families Cut Apparel, Protect Sports and Tech Budgets

Quick Facts

Total back-to-school spending is projected to reach a record $43.3 billion in 2026, up from $39.4 billion in 2025.
Kids’ apparel dollar sales are expected to decline 1% to 2% in Q3, driven by a 3% drop in unit demand, per Circana.
Seven in 10 families plan to protect sports participation spending, with a 6% increase in per-child sports budgets year over year, according to KPMG.

Back-to-school spending will hit a record this year, but the money is moving in new directions. Families are loading up on school supplies and technology while pulling back on clothing, spreading apparel purchases across the entire fall season rather than concentrating them before Labor Day.

The National Retail Federation projects total K-12 back-to-school spending will reach $43.3 billion, up from $39.4 billion in 2025 and above the previous survey high of $41.5 billion set in 2023. Families with elementary through high school students plan to spend an average of $863.86, compared to $858.07 last year.

Electronics lead category spending at $293.11 per household, totaling $14.7 billion. Clothing and accessories follow at $250.29 per household, then shoes at $174.01, and school supplies at $146.45.

Apparel Takes the Hit

Despite its size, apparel is the weak spot this season. Circana’s Future of Apparel forecast projects kids’ apparel dollar sales will fall 1% to 2% in the third quarter, with unit demand dropping 3%. Consumers are buying fewer items but paying more per piece.

Fifty-seven percent of consumers say they are at least somewhat concerned about price increases affecting back-to-school clothing and footwear costs, according to Circana’s omnibus survey. That pressure is reshaping timing as much as total spend.

Two-thirds of apparel shoppers buy occasion clothing no more than a month before the event, with 38% shopping the week of the occasion. For retailers, that means the traditional August rush is giving way to a longer, slower sales curve that stretches well into October.

Sports Gear Earns Essential Status

While apparel struggles, sporting goods are holding firm. KPMG’s Consumer Pulse Back-to-School 2026 survey found families expect to spend $252 per child on sports-related purchases, a 6% increase from 2025. Seven in 10 families plan to maintain sports participation this school year.

Outdoor sports account for 43% of school-related activities. Soccer is the most popular at 47%, followed by baseball and softball at 39%.

“Sports have become essential spending for American families,” said Duleep Rodrigo, KPMG U.S. Consumer, Retail and Hospitality Leader. “It’s tied to a family’s routine, which makes it more resilient as consumers make tradeoffs elsewhere in the back-to-school budget.”

Value Drives Every Decision

Nearly 80% of parents say higher spending reflects rising prices for the same goods, not a larger basket of items. Big-ticket technology purchases like laptops are driving dollars up even as unit counts stay flat or fall.

Deloitte’s 2026 Back-to-School Survey pegs expected spending per child at $557, with an estimated market of $30.4 billion. Inflation reached 4.2% in May, and 57% of survey respondents expect the economy to worsen over the next six months, the highest reading since 2020.

PwC data shows parents expect to spend an average of $922 per household, with apparel and shoes alone averaging $278, more than twice what families spend on actual school supplies.

“Families are paying more this back-to-school season, but they aren’t getting more,” Rodrigo said. “Brands that can demonstrate real value, not just lower prices, are the ones best positioned to earn their stay in the cart.”

What This Means for Retailers

The shift toward essentials and away from discretionary apparel puts pressure on clothing brands to justify price points and extend promotional windows beyond the traditional back-to-school peak. Sporting goods retailers and tech sellers are better positioned heading into Q3.

NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews noted that affordability remains the top priority for both shoppers and retailers. Brands that align with tighter family routines and demonstrate clear value on repeat purchases, whether replacement cleats or a new backpack, stand to capture the most durable share of this season’s wallet.