NRF: In-Store Shoplifting Falls but Fraud Surges as Criminals Shift Tactics

Quick Facts

Shoplifting incidents fell 12.4% in 2025 compared to 2024, per the NRF’s 2026 Impact of Retail Theft & Violence report.
Phone scams rose 69%, loyalty fraud rose 51%, and gift card theft and fraud rose 42% over the same period.
The Combating Organized Retail Crime Act passed the U.S. House with 348 votes and is now awaiting Senate action.

Retailers are seeing fewer shoplifting incidents, but criminals have not stopped. They have changed methods. The National Retail Federation’s 2026 Impact of Retail Theft & Violence report shows a 12.4% drop in shoplifting incidents and an 8.1% decline in retail merchandise theft in 2025 versus 2024. At the same time, fraud and external theft schemes are accelerating.

The report surveyed senior loss prevention and security executives at 66 retail companies representing 143 brands and roughly $1.7 trillion in annual sales. Data was collected from February through April 2026 in partnership with the Loss Prevention Research Council.

Fraud Fills the Gap

While smash-and-grab headlines have faded, the underlying criminal activity has not. Retailers reported phone scams targeting store associates up 69%, loyalty fraud up 51%, gift card theft and fraud up 42%, repeat offenders up 50%, and organized retail crime incidents up 40%.

More than a third of surveyed retailers, 36%, also reported increases in cargo and supply chain theft. In April, the Los Angeles Police Department seized roughly $1 million in stolen merchandise from a Van Nuys warehouse, recovering 55 pallets of goods tied to an e-commerce resale scheme on the livestream shopping platform Whatnot.

Technology Driving the Decline in Shoplifting

David Johnston, NRF vice president for asset protection and retail operations, credited retailer investment in technology and employee training for the stabilization of in-store theft. Enhanced interior and exterior security systems and AI-powered fraud detection tools have contributed to the improvement.

Johnston cautioned that challenges remain. “Organized criminals continue to exploit vulnerabilities throughout the retail environment as seen in the rise of various fraud schemes and thefts, including cargo theft, phone scams and gift card fraud,” he said.

Gift Card Fraud: A Growing Market Problem

Gift card fraud has drawn attention from state legislatures. Maryland passed the Gift Card Scams Prevention Act of 2024. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp signed legislation in May 2026 creating new crimes for gift card theft, forgery, and fraud. The U.S. gift card market generated approximately $447.7 billion in sales, more than a third of the global market valued at over $1.24 trillion in 2025.

Public Data Tells a Different Story

The NRF’s survey-based findings conflict with publicly recorded crime data. Reported shoplifting in three dozen major U.S. cities rose 4% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, and 5% above 2019 levels, according to the Council on Criminal Justice. The gap highlights ongoing tension between industry self-reporting and law enforcement data.

Congress Moves on Organized Retail Crime

The Combating Organized Retail Crime Act passed the U.S. House with 348 votes. The bill would create an Organized Retail and Supply Chain Crime Coordination Center within the Department of Homeland Security to improve information sharing and coordinate investigations across local, state, federal, and private-sector partners.

The legislation has backing from 38 state attorneys general, major law enforcement organizations, and a coalition of over 260 businesses. American Eagle Outfitters Chief Global Asset Protection Officer Scott McBride testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee on July 15 in support of the bill.

For operators and founders, the report signals a clear shift in where retail loss is happening. Store-level security investments are working. But fraud prevention, particularly across digital channels, loyalty programs, and gift card systems, now demands equal attention and budget.