Holiday Shopping Starts in September Now. Retailers Waiting for Black Friday Will Lose.

Quick Facts

Only 15% of consumers wait until Black Friday or Cyber Monday to make holiday gift purchases, per a tvScientific survey of 600 shoppers.
62% of marketers are launching holiday campaigns earlier in 2026, driven by pressure to prove revenue and return on ad spend.
AI tools drove $3 billion in U.S. online sales on Black Friday 2025 alone, with conversion rates eight times higher than social media referrals.

The holiday retail playbook is being rewritten. A new report from Pinterest’s tvScientific unit makes the case plainly: brands that wait until Black Friday to launch holiday campaigns are starting too late.

The report surveyed 600 consumers and 487 U.S. marketers. It found that 33% of shoppers begin researching gifts before October, and 21% are already making purchases by then. Just 15% hold off until the traditional Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotional window.

The Season Starts Earlier Every Year

Two in five Americans start researching purchases before Black Friday, and 38% say they complete purchases during that early window. The National Retail Federation found that 61% of consumers surveyed in early November 2025 had already started holiday shopping, up from 59% the year before and 51% a decade ago.

Americans spent more than $1.35 trillion during the 2025 holiday season. More than half of consumers plan to spend over $500 on gifts this year, and one in three expects to spend $1,000 or more. Fifty-five percent plan to spend more than last year.

Black Friday itself is not dead. The tvScientific data shows 65% of consumers still pay close attention to Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Shopify merchants recorded $14.6 billion in sales over BFCM weekend in 2025, up 27% year over year. The National Retail Federation counted 202.9 million shoppers over Thanksgiving weekend, the highest total on record.

But those numbers reflect what happens after months of consumer research and early purchases. The purchase decision is often made long before the promotional weekend arrives.

Marketers Feel the Pressure

Sixty-two percent of marketers said they are starting holiday campaigns earlier in 2026 because of increased pressure to prove revenue and ROAS. Seventy-six percent say it is very critical to reach shoppers before they begin comparing products.

The top concerns keeping marketers up at night: rising media costs, cited by 38% of respondents; new product launches or shifting business priorities, cited by 37%; and reaching high-intent shoppers, cited by 30%.

“Peak trading no longer happens on a single, predictable day,” said Jim Herbert, CEO of Patchworks. “What we’re seeing is demand arriving earlier, staying higher for longer, and continuing even on days that were once considered operational downtime.”

Magali Darling, Chief Commercial Officer at RetailMeNot, described the consumer shift as structural. “Consumers have faced several years of rising costs, and what we’re seeing now is resilience turning into strategy,” she said. “It’s a long-term shift in how consumers approach spending, with a stronger focus on making every dollar work harder.”

AI Is Now a Purchase Channel

Seventy-two percent of consumers regularly or occasionally consult AI tools such as ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini for shopping ideas and gift recommendations. ChatGPT carries a 7.1% conversion rate, second only to paid search at 7.8%. Of the 2.7 billion ChatGPT visits between July and August 2025, 19 million resulted in referrals to ecommerce sites.

Salesforce reported that AI and AI agents drove $3 billion in U.S. online sales on Black Friday 2025 alone. Thirty-seven percent of consumers plan to use AI more for holiday shopping this year. Top use cases include comparing products, finding the best price, and generating gift ideas.

For operators, the implication is direct. Brands that are not appearing in AI-generated gift recommendations or comparison results before October will miss a growing share of purchase decisions that never reach a paid search ad or a Black Friday email.

Bundling over discounting is also gaining attention among practitioners. “Offering a gift with a purchase can encourage holiday shoppers to become repeat buyers,” said A-Frame’s Bloom, noting that economic pressure this year makes pricing strategy more sensitive than in 2025.