Fewer Carts, Bigger Baskets: How the Savings Mindset Is Reshaping U.S. Shopping

Quick Facts

Retail transactions fell 7% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, while average order value jumped 16% to $130, per impact.com data.
53% of Americans set a budget for 2026, up from 46% in 2025, with 42% planning to save additional income.
U.S. retail e-commerce sales hit $340.2 billion in Q2 2026, up 12.2% year-over-year.

American shoppers are buying less and spending more per transaction. A new report from impact.com, analyzing 2,319 same-store retail brands in the first half of 2026, found transactions dropped 7% year-over-year while average order value climbed 16%, from $111 to $130. Total consumer spending rose 8%, driven by higher per-item prices, which increased 13% year-over-year.

The data points to a consumer who is not retreating from spending but has become far more deliberate. Clicks increased 18% and orders rose 12%, yet overall spending grew just 0.4% in some segments, a sign that shoppers are researching extensively before committing.

The Budget-First Consumer

More Americans are entering 2026 with a financial plan. A slim majority, 53%, set a budget this year, up from 46% in 2025. Only 39% plan to spend less in 2026, a sharp drop from the 69% who said the same in 2025. Thirty percent expect to spend more, and 31% plan to hold steady.

Before purchasing, 45% of consumers make shopping lists, 44% plan spending in advance, and 37% compare prices across brands. Grocery shoppers in particular are making detailed meal plans, avoiding impulse purchases, and seeking store brands, multi-buy promotions, and loyalty rewards.

Credit card rewards have become a meaningful part of the online shopping equation. According to the report, 72% of shoppers factor rewards or cashback categories into which card they use, and 60% check for cash back bonuses before buying.

Discretionary Spending Takes the Hit

Two-thirds of American consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending. Non-food retail faces the steepest projected global decline at negative 24 points, followed by eating and drinking out at negative 21 points. Travel is expected to see a net reduction of negative 9 points.

Middle-income suburban households have joined lower-income consumers in the high-concern zone, particularly as tariff uncertainty adds pressure. Consumer confidence fell 8.2 points year-over-year in August 2025. Average wages reached $36.53 per hour, but rising food and essential costs continue to compress budgets.

65% of consumers cite lower disposable income as the primary reason for cutting back on essentials. The same figure, 62%, applies to travel cutbacks.

Value Retail Gains Ground

Discount and off-price retailers are the clearest beneficiaries of this shift. Walmart, Costco, TJ Maxx, and Ross Stores are pulling traffic from consumers across income levels who want value without sacrificing selection. Dollar General plans to open 450 new stores in 2026, with its strategy anchored in smaller-format locations in rural and underserved markets.

Private label brands are accelerating alongside the trend. PLMA President Peggy Davies said retailer-owned brands are now competing on value, quality, health, and sustainability, not price alone.

Brian Salzman, founder and CEO of RQ, said consumers in 2026 will be more selective about where they spend. “We’ll see sharper trade-down on anything undifferentiated, and trade-up for brands that deliver emotional or experiential value,” he said.

What This Means for Operators

Tom Burke, CEO of AtData, framed the stakes plainly. “Cost-conscious shoppers will chase price. Brand-committed shoppers will expect hyper-personalized experiences that justify the premium. Retailers stuck in the middle will lose both groups.”

E-commerce continues to grow through this environment. U.S. retail e-commerce sales reached $340.2 billion in Q2 2026, up 3.8% from Q1 and 12.2% year-over-year, building on the record $1.2 trillion in 2025. The channel is where much of the pre-purchase research happens, and brands that make the value case clearly online stand to capture the deliberate shopper.

Adam Brotman, co-CEO of Forum3, warned that the psychological effects of years of inflation will outlast the economic data. “Even mild price increases will push value-conscious shoppers toward private label, refurbished goods, and AI-powered deal-hunting tools,” he said.