US E-commerce Sales to Hit $1.8 Trillion by 2030 as AI Transforms Shopping

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2.25.2026

Quick Facts

US e-commerce sales will reach $1.8 trillion by 2030, capturing 29% of total retail sales
AI-enabled e-commerce market grew to $8.65 billion in 2025 and is projected to hit $64 billion by 2034
Gen Z shoppers now trust AI more than search, social media, or influencers to guide purchases

US e-commerce sales will reach $1.8 trillion by 2030, according to new Forrester research. The forecast shows online sales will capture 29% of total retail sales, up from current levels.

Total retail sales excluding automotive and gasoline will reach $6.2 trillion by 2030, up from $5.2 trillion in 2025. Physical stores will still dominate with $4.4 trillion in sales, representing 71% of the market.

Gen Z shoppers are driving much of the growth. This demographic, aged 18 to 28, showed the highest interest in AI shopping assistants in 2025. Research shows 43% of Gen Z now start product searches on TikTok rather than Google.

AI agents are transforming how consumers shop. The technology moved beyond simple chatbots in 2025 to autonomous systems that complete purchases for users. OpenAI launched Instant Checkout in September 2025, allowing AI to buy from Etsy sellers and over one million Shopify stores.

“Agentic commerce is no longer a concept on the horizon, it’s here, and it’s already the first stop in the shopping journey,” said Al Williams, general manager of B2C at Commerce. “Gen Z and Millennials now trust AI more than search, social or influencers to guide what they buy.”

The AI-enabled e-commerce market reached $8.65 billion in 2025 and will hit $64 billion by 2034, a 24.3% compound annual growth rate. Morgan Stanley projects AI agents could contribute $115 billion in added sales by 2030.

Amazon maintains its lead with 37.8% of US e-commerce in 2025. But new competitors like Temu are gaining ground with low prices and gamified shopping experiences. TikTok Shop is also reshaping product discovery, with nearly 80% of US users noticing ads and considering purchases.

The growth comes despite economic headwinds. Consumer spending patterns are diverging, with higher-income households driving growth while lower-income shoppers focus on essentials. Retail sales remained resilient due to stable inflation, low unemployment, and wages outpacing inflation.

Nearly 60% of consumers used AI to help them shop by the end of 2025. McKinsey predicts AI agents could orchestrate $900 billion to $1 trillion in US retail revenue shifts by 2030.