Agentic Commerce Revenue Forecast to Hit $1 Trillion in US by 2030

✴︎

5.6.2026

Quick Facts

ICSC and McKinsey project US agentic commerce revenue will reach $900 billion to $1 trillion by 2030
68% of consumers used AI tools for shopping in past three months, but only 13% completed purchases through AI assistants
Trust remains a barrier with 41% of consumers reporting no trust in AI shopping assistants

Agentic commerce in the United States could generate between $900 billion and $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. That projection comes from a joint report by ICSC and McKinsey & Company released this week.

The forecast represents a massive shift in retail. McKinsey describes agentic commerce as autonomous AI systems that search, filter, compare and purchase products on behalf of customers.

Other research firms offer varying projections. Morgan Stanley estimates agentic shoppers could reach $190 billion to $385 billion in US e-commerce spending by 2030. Bain projects the market could hit $300 billion to $500 billion, representing 15% to 25% of total e-commerce.

Consumer adoption shows mixed signals. Sixty-eight percent of consumers used at least one AI tool for shopping in the past three months. Sixty-two percent used AI to compare brands, models, prices or reviews.

But conversion lags behind usage. Only 13% of consumers completed a purchase after AI assistant referrals, despite 70% expressing comfort with AI agents making purchases on their behalf.

Trust poses the biggest challenge. Forty-one percent of survey respondents have no trust in AI shopping assistants. While 72% of US consumers have used AI in some form, only 24% would be comfortable using it to make purchases today.

“AI isn’t eliminating the store — it’s raising the bar for what it needs to deliver,” said Colleen Baum, senior partner at McKinsey & Company. “As more of the shopping journey moves upstream, the stores that win will be those with a clearly defined role.”

Technology platforms are building infrastructure to support agentic commerce. Google launched the Universal Commerce Protocol in January 2026, enabling AI agents to interact with merchant catalogs. Microsoft Copilot Checkout went live in the US at the same time.

Shopify reports orders from AI-powered searches grew 15 times year-over-year through 2025. ChatGPT, which hit 900 million weekly active users, introduced shopping features backed by its Agentic Commerce Protocol.

Payment companies are adapting too. Mastercard is advancing agent authentication through its Agent Pay initiative. Visa launched Intelligent Commerce to build consumer delegation frameworks. Stripe co-developed the Agentic Commerce Protocol with OpenAI.

The infrastructure gap remains significant. Consumer demand exists, with 39% adoption and 805% traffic growth. But conversion rates are 86% worse than affiliate channels because merchant systems were not built for agents.

“We aren’t just watching the shift, we are driving it,” said John Furner, Walmart’s President and CEO, at the National Retail Federation’s Big Show.

Physical stores will remain relevant as agentic commerce grows. Nearly 40% of Gen Z and millennials prefer experiential retail that offers discovery and social connection.