Deloitte: High-Income Families Plan to Spend 20% Less on Back-to-School in 2026

Quick Facts

Households earning $200,000 or more plan to spend 20% less on back-to-school shopping in 2026 compared to 2025, according to Deloitte’s annual survey.
Total K-12 back-to-school spending is projected at $30.4 billion, or $557 per student, down 6% in inflation-adjusted terms from last year.
57% of parents expect the economy to worsen over the next six months, the most pessimistic reading Deloitte has recorded since 2020.

High-earning American families are cutting back-to-school budgets at rates not seen in years. Deloitte’s 2026 Back-to-School Survey, based on responses from 1,207 parents of K-12 students surveyed May 22-29, found that parents earning more than $200,000 annually plan to spend 20% less this season than they did in 2025.

The pullback is not isolated to the top bracket. Nine percent of upper-middle-income parents and 63% of households earning $200,000 or more report having less money to spend. Lower-income and middle-income families, by contrast, expect to spend more, driven by higher prices rather than higher budgets.

Spending by Category

Clothing and accessories are set to rise 22% to an average of $323 per child, even as parents name apparel the first thing they would cut if finances worsen. Technology spending is heading the opposite direction, falling 16% to $417 per child, as families defer laptops, tablets, and phones.

To free up room in their budgets, half of surveyed parents said they are cutting spending elsewhere, primarily on dining out and entertainment.

Shopping Timing Shifts

Only 48% of planned back-to-school spending is expected to occur before the end of July, down from 61% last year. Another 31% is projected to land in early August, a return to pre-pandemic seasonal patterns. Retailers that depend on early-summer sales lifts will need to adjust expectations.

The Value-Seeker Paradox

About 31% of parents qualify as hyper value-seekers, defined by Deloitte as shoppers using four or more cost-saving tactics including switching brands, shopping at discount retailers, buying private label, or using cashback sites. This group plans to spend 14% more than other shoppers, suggesting selective spending rather than blanket cuts.

“While many parents are willing to do all they can to help set their children up for success, financial concerns are leading them to sharpen their budgets,” said Natalie Martini, vice chair and U.S. retail and consumer products sector leader at Deloitte. “Value-seekers demonstrate that it’s not always about the cost. Some consumers are willing to spend if they find value in the purchase.”

Retailer Response

Mass merchants continue to dominate, drawing 80% of back-to-school shoppers ahead of online retailers, warehouse clubs, and department stores. High-income shoppers, typically associated with premium retail, are increasingly turning to Walmart for value and selection.

Retailers are working to absorb tariff-related cost increases on key items by raising prices elsewhere. The goal is to keep high-volume staples at familiar price points without passing costs directly to consumers on essentials.

About a fifth of back-to-school shoppers plan to use AI tools during the season. Brian McCarthy, principal of retail strategy at Deloitte Consulting, noted that AI-assisted shoppers tend to spend more time comparing products and filling larger carts. “GenAI users may spend more time comparing products and filling their carts with more purchases, which can create a further benefit for retailers to lean into the technology,” McCarthy said.

What It Means for Retailers

The data points to a season where winners will be decided by value perception and execution, not volume. Broad spending is nearly flat in nominal terms, but real dollars are shrinking and consumer confidence is at a six-year low for the season.

Retailers with strong private label programs, clear value messaging, and AI-powered discovery tools are best positioned. Those relying on aspirational positioning or premium pricing face a harder path as even their core high-income shoppers look for ways to spend less.