Free Shipping Beats Fast Delivery as Consumer Priorities Shift

Quick Facts

95% of consumers prefer free shipping with standard delivery over paying for expedited options, per McKinsey 2025 survey data.
Fast shipping preferences (two days or less) dropped to 15% in Ryder’s 2025 E-commerce Consumer Study, down 5% from both 2024 and 2023.
83% of retailers report home delivery costs increased year-over-year, and 64% say home delivery is not profitable compared to in-store transactions, per AlixPartners.

The race to offer faster shipping may be costing retailers more than it earns them. A wave of new data shows consumers care less about delivery speed and more about avoiding shipping fees entirely, putting pressure on brands to rethink how they structure fulfillment offers.

Free shipping ranked as the top purchase factor for 76% of consumers in Ryder’s 2025 E-commerce Consumer Study, up 5% from 2024 and 12% from 2023. Fast shipping dropped to 15%, its lowest point in three consecutive years of tracking.

McKinsey data reinforces the trend. More than 90% of shoppers will abandon a purchase over high shipping costs. About 50% say they will not pay for shipping at any speed. And 70% of U.S. shoppers in 2025 said they left a cart after seeing unexpected shipping fees.

Speed Expectations Have Not Disappeared

Consumers are willing to wait, but not indefinitely. The average expected free delivery window has compressed to 2.7 days, down from 3.5 days in prior years, according to AlixPartners. In 2012, the average wait was 5.5 days when AlixPartners first began its annual home delivery survey.

Expectations shift by category. Grocery and food shoppers expect delivery in under one day. Large general merchandise buyers accept up to 3.2 days.

Rebecca Wolfe, SVP of Supply Chain and Operations at AlixPartners, attributed the shift to Amazon’s influence. “It comes down to Amazon’s influence, with younger consumers, in the 18-to-34 age range, placing orders almost daily,” she said. “They’re becoming accustomed to seeing that fast fulfillment, so that expectation is now bleeding into their shopping everywhere else.”

Retailers Are Squeezed on Both Sides

Carrier rate increases are compounding the pressure. UPS and FedEx both raised average rates 5.9% in 2025. The U.S. Postal Service, OnTrac, and GLS US followed with their own increases. Last-mile delivery already accounts for more than half of total transportation expenses.

Despite rising costs, retailers cannot afford service failures. More than 20% of demand is estimated to be at risk when delivery timing expectations go unmet, per AlixPartners. Nearly 90% of shoppers say a late delivery weakens or ends their relationship with the retailer, even when the retailer apologizes.

Marc Iampieri, Global Co-Leader of Logistics and Transportation at AlixPartners, framed the stakes plainly. “Retailers who treat home delivery as a cost line to minimize, rather than a customer experience to invest in, are quietly surrendering loyalty they may never recover.”

How Retailers Are Responding

To protect margins, 56% of retailers now require a minimum order value to unlock free shipping, with half having raised that threshold in the past year. An additional 22% require both a minimum order and a paid membership.

Digital Commerce 360 found that 71.2% of retailers in its Top 1000 Database offered free shipping as of 2024, up slightly from 71.0% in 2023. Among shoppers surveyed, 73.9% named free shipping as the top factor in deciding where to buy, ahead of delivery speed at 58.9%.

Chris Considine, a partner in AlixPartners’ Retail Practice, pointed to carrier strategy as a differentiator. “Carrier diversification used to be a cost play. It is now a resilience and brand play. The retailers gaining ground are those who have built multi-carrier architectures that let them route around service failures in real time.”

For operators, the data is clear. Free shipping is no longer a promotional lever. It is a baseline expectation, and meeting it profitably requires structural changes to fulfillment, carrier relationships, and minimum order thresholds.