Retailers Race to Stock Up Before Next Round of Tariffs Hits in August

Quick Facts

July container imports are forecast to hit a record 2.47 million TEUs, surpassing the previous high of 2.4 million TEUs set in May 2022.
The current 10% Section 122 tariff expires July 24, but new forced-labor tariffs from the Trump administration are expected as early as August.
85.6% of enterprise shippers frontloaded inventory in response to tariff uncertainty, according to an STG Logistics survey.

U.S. retailers are flooding ports with imports at a record pace. The nation’s major container ports are forecast to handle 2.47 million twenty-foot equivalent units in July, a new all-time high, driven by companies racing to beat the next wave of tariffs, according to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker report.

The current 10% Section 122 global tariff, imposed after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s earlier tariff program under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, expires July 24. The administration has already signaled it will introduce new tariffs targeting forced labor as early as August.

“Import volumes have risen sharply, with strong growth likely continuing into July,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “Much of this increase reflects frontloading ahead of expected tariff increases.”

Ports handled 2.24 million TEUs in May, up 14.9% year over year. June is projected at 2.33 million TEUs, an 18.7% jump from a year earlier. That pushes the first half of 2026 to 12.77 million TEUs, a 2% gain over the same period in 2025.

The surge is not expected to last. NRF projects August imports will fall to 2.22 million TEUs, down 4.5% from a year earlier. September and October are each forecast at 1.99 million TEUs, with November dropping to 1.92 million TEUs.

“This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The busy back-to-school selling season has already started, and the winter holidays won’t be far behind.”

Gold noted that consumers are continuing to spend, but affordability is shaping their choices. Zachary Rogers, lead author of the Logistics Managers’ Index, said broad price increases have been muted so far because stockpiled goods are still sitting in warehouses. “We are seeing price increases right now in back-to-school kids’ apparel, toys, and things like that. But consumers haven’t seen the really big impact of any inflation yet because it is sitting in the middle mile.”

Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Group, said most retailers avoided significant tariff exposure in the first half of 2026 by pulling inventory forward. She expects that to change. “We expect tariffs to be a bigger headwind in the second half of the year, likely around late 3Q to 4Q, and into next year,” Telsey said. She added that retailers are responding by diversifying sourcing, sharing costs with suppliers, and raising consumer prices.

Company-level exposure varies sharply. Five Below sources 72% of its shipments from China, making it one of the most exposed major retailers. Best Buy, by contrast, sources just 8% of products from China, with South Korea accounting for 60% of its supply. Abercrombie and Fitch has broadly diversified, pulling 27% of imports from Bangladesh and only 9% from China.

Sportsman’s Warehouse said in June it pulled forward $20 million worth of spring and summer inventory in tariff-affected categories ahead of the holiday and hunting season. Williams-Sonoma executives said the company made similar strategic moves.

Nike said Trump’s tariff program could add roughly $1 billion to its costs and has already raised apparel and equipment prices for adults by $2 to $10, with footwear up $5 to $10 depending on price point. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon was direct on a recent earnings call: “We aren’t able to absorb all the pressure given the reality of narrow retail margins.”

Carriers are compounding the cost pressure. Shipping rates rose as of July 1 due to fuel price increases and disruptions tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Supply chain data firm Deposco reported a 228% increase in Days of Inventory on Hand between February and April 2025 as the initial stockpiling wave hit. Descartes Systems Group reported a better than 27% year-over-year surge in China imports, with more than 814,000 TEUs arriving from China in June alone.

Retailers have bought themselves time. Once July’s record import window closes, the industry will face a different reality: higher costs, lower incoming volume, and consumers who are already watching prices.