Cautious Shoppers, Tight Budgets Define 2026 Holiday Outlook

Quick Facts

38.2% of shoppers say tighter budgets will have the biggest impact on their 2026 holiday spending, per Alchemer’s 2026 Holiday Shopper Report.
Deloitte projects holiday ecommerce sales will grow 7% to 9% year over year, reaching between $305 billion and $310.7 billion.
69% of shoppers plan to purchase in physical stores this year, up 11% from 2025.

Retailers heading into the 2026 holiday season face a shopper who is still spending but doing so with more scrutiny. Economic pressure has narrowed margins for error, and brands that fail to deliver clear value at every touchpoint risk losing sales to more competitive options.

According to Alchemer’s 2026 Holiday Shopper Report, 38.2% of shoppers say tighter budgets will have the biggest effect on their holiday spending. Another 27% expect rising prices to influence their decisions. Among all respondents, 69% rank price and value as the most important factors when deciding what to buy.

Consumer sentiment is near record lows, down 5% month over month and 29% year over year. The Conference Board’s March 2026 Consumer Confidence Index fell below 100 for Baby Boomers, Gen X, and the Silent Generation. Gen X barely held above 80.

Spending Intentions

More than half of shoppers, 51%, plan to spend roughly the same as they did during the 2025 holiday season, per Salsify’s 2026 Holiday Pulse Report. Still, 42% of consumers bought fewer items in 2025, and 21% traded down to cheaper options. Even among consumers who reported being better off financially in 2025, 35% spent less during the holiday season.

The income divide is widening. High-income households accounted for 38.5% of total holiday spend in 2025, up from 31.7% in 2024. Middle-income households fell from 49.2% to 44.3%, and low-income households dropped from 19.1% to 17.2%. Delinquency rates are climbing fastest among Gen Z and in lower-income zip codes.

Sales Forecasts

Overall U.S. retail growth is projected at 2.6% for the 2026 holiday season, with ecommerce growing at 6.6%, according to EMARKETER’s February forecast. Deloitte puts holiday ecommerce between $305 billion and $310.7 billion, reflecting 7% to 9% growth year over year. The National Retail Federation projects full-year retail sales will grow 4.4% to $5.6 trillion.

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said: “Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated. We expect that consumer resilience to continue into 2026.”

In-Store Rebounds, Digital Drives Discovery

Physical retail is seeing renewed interest. Nearly 70% of shoppers plan to buy in stores this year, up 11 points from 2025. At the same time, 67% plan to webroom, finding products online before purchasing in-store, and 53% plan to showroom, starting in-store and finishing the transaction online.

Ecommerce still grows nearly five times faster than in-store sales, even as 79% of purchases still occur in physical retail. The pattern signals a blended path to purchase where digital channels drive discovery and stores close the deal.

Black Friday is regaining ground. Nearly 73% of shoppers plan to participate this year. The share who believe the event offers significant value jumped from 30% in 2025 to 39% in 2026. Last year, 203 million U.S. consumers shopped across the five-day Thanksgiving-to-Cyber Monday window, the largest turnout since NRF began tracking the period in 2017.

What Retailers Need to Do

Brian Henley, VP of Research Services at Alchemer, said: “Consumers are spending more carefully, using AI more often, and expecting every interaction to be seamless. Retailers that offer a great experience in store and online while delivering good value will have a clear advantage this holiday season.”

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said the company is “keeping our prices as low as we can for as long as we can.” Target CEO Brian Cornell called price increases a “last resort.” Both signals point to major retailers absorbing margin pressure rather than passing costs to consumers.

For DTC operators, the calculus is clear. Shoppers are comparing more, spending less, and gravitating toward brands that remove friction. The 2026 holiday season will reward operators who combine competitive pricing with seamless cross-channel execution.