Shopify July Data Shows School Uniforms Led Back-to-School Surge, Tariffs Pushed Shoppers Early

Quick Facts

School uniforms posted the highest month-over-month growth on Shopify in July 2025, up 231% compared to June.
67% of back-to-school shoppers began purchasing in July, up from 55% in 2024, with 51% citing tariff-driven price concerns as the reason.
Combined back-to-school and back-to-college spending hit $128 billion in 2025, making it the third-largest consumer spending event in the U.S. retail calendar.

Back-to-school shopping dominated Shopify’s platform in July 2025, with school supply categories posting steep month-over-month sales gains as tariff anxiety pushed families to buy earlier than ever.

School uniforms led all categories with a 231% month-over-month increase compared to June. School backpacks rose 180%, lunch boxes and totes climbed 174%, and bulletin boards were up 81%. Stickers and sticker machines followed at 80% growth.

The numbers reflect a broader acceleration in the shopping season. According to the National Retail Federation, two-thirds of back-to-school shoppers had begun purchasing in July, up from 55% in 2024 and the highest early-shopping rate since the NRF began tracking the metric in 2018. More than half of those early shoppers, 51%, said rising prices tied to tariffs drove the decision.

Total combined back-to-school and back-to-college spending reached $128 billion in 2025. K-12 spending accounted for $39.4 billion. Back-to-college added $88.8 billion. The season now ranks behind only the winter holidays and back-to-school’s own prior year totals as a retail spending driver.

Not every category surged. Markers and highlighters fell 8% month-over-month. Book covers dropped 1%. Categories with year-round demand, including water bottles, notebooks, and pens, posted more modest gains of 24%, 17%, and 8% respectively, reflecting their appeal outside the school season.

Regional Breakdown

Regional patterns showed meaningful variation. In the South, backpacks led overall sales, and calculator sales jumped 124% month-over-month. The South also recorded the strongest water bottle growth at 35%.

On the West Coast, water bottles topped the sales chart. Sports uniform sales declined 14% month-over-month in the region, which Shopify data suggests may reflect earlier purchasing cycles compared to the rest of the country.

The Midwest saw sticker and sticker machine sales surge 174% month-over-month, outpacing every other region in that category. The Midwest was also the only region to see a calculator sales decline, down 11%.

In the Northeast, sports uniforms led total sales, and the category posted its strongest month-over-month growth there at 25%.

Price-Hunting Behavior Shaped Where Families Shopped

Consumer research firm Kantar found that parents were using multiple retail channels with specific strategies at each. Erica Smith, associate research manager at Kantar, said shoppers used Amazon primarily for price comparison and validation, while relying on Target and Walmart for stocking up and finding private label options.

“In this current climate, we’re seeing shoppers using Amazon as kind of a validation tool to make sure they’re getting the best possible price,” Smith said.

PwC’s 2025 Back-to-School Survey found that nearly three in four parents reported price as the primary factor in purchase decisions. PwC also recommended that retailers ensure their promotions are discoverable through AI-powered search tools and incorporate AI-driven product discovery into their platforms.

For Shopify merchants, the data points to a clear window. The back-to-school surge is now a July event, not August. Merchants selling uniforms, backpacks, and lunch gear who waited for peak traffic likely left revenue on the table in 2025.