Quick Facts
- The first half of 2026 saw 12.7 million TEUs move through major U.S. ports, up 1.1% from the same period in 2025.
- Retailers accelerated imports ahead of tariff changes and supply chain disruptions caused by the Iran conflict, creating an earlier-than-usual peak shipping season.
- Full-year 2026 import volume is projected at 25.5 million TEUs, up 0.1% from 2025, with volumes expected to decline through the rest of the year.
U.S. retailers are well-positioned for the 2026 holiday season after a front-loaded import surge earlier this year. The early peak shipping season is now winding down, and inventory levels across major categories are strong.
“We had an early peak season this year as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariff changes in late July and responded to other uncertainties in the supply chain like the ongoing disruption brought by the conflict in Iran,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation. “One round of tariffs has been replaced with another, but retailers will be well stocked for the coming holiday season.”
The NRF and Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker report found a 13.2% year-over-year increase in 20-foot equivalent units at major U.S. ports in June. That figure came in below a prior projection of nearly 19% growth and was down 0.7% from May.
May was the busiest month of the year, with ports handling 2.24 million TEU. July volume is projected at 2.21 million TEU, down 7.6% year over year. August is forecast at 2.22 million TEU, down 4.2%.
Volume is expected to continue easing into year-end. September is forecast at 2.16 million TEU, October at 2.13 million TEU, November at 2.03 million TEU, and December at 2.06 million TEU.
At the Port of Los Angeles, 5.1 million TEUs moved in the first half of 2026, roughly 3% ahead of 2024’s pace and 4% above the five-year average.
Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, told the Wall Street Journal that big-box retailers drove heavy volumes of clothing, electronics, and furniture through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach this summer. “The peak is lasting longer than many of us thought, even going back a couple of months ago,” Seroka said.
Seroka noted a structural shift in how importers are operating. “Importers aren’t simply moving more cargo. They’re moving it differently. Many companies have stepped away from traditional seasonal shipping patterns, advancing cargo whenever they see an opening rather than waiting for perfect conditions.”
Two major forces drove the acceleration. First, the tariff environment shifted sharply after the Supreme Court ruled on February 20 that IEEPA does not authorize tariff imposition. President Trump responded by announcing a global 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective February 24. Those tariffs expired July 23. A new set of Section 301 tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% took effect the following day, covering 60 economies and affecting 99% of U.S. imports.
Second, U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran on February 28 shut down the Strait of Hormuz and forced commercial vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. That added 10 to 20 days to transit times and pushed ocean freight rates up as much as 50% for U.S. importers.
Together, the two pressures pushed many retailers to advance purchase orders by four to six weeks compared to historical norms. A Deloitte study found that respondents placed more than half of holiday orders by the end of May, about two months earlier than in Deloitte’s 2024 survey.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said consumer spending has held despite the pressures. “Consumers might have been expected to become more cautious as cost-of-living pressures persist. Even so, consumer spending has remained resilient despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty.”
Gold said retailers are prepared to meet shoppers wherever they land. “Retailers know how to adapt to shifting situations and are well prepared to meet consumers’ demand for affordability and choice.”
For operators planning Q4, the data points to a well-supplied market. The risk heading into the holidays is not inventory availability but margin pressure, as elevated freight costs and a new layer of Section 301 tariffs compress unit economics across apparel, electronics, and furniture categories.
